The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect (Penguin Science)

by Judea Pearl

Mediation Formula

counterfactual definition of the direct and indirect effects,

Without the ability to envision alternate realities and contrast them with the currently existing reality, a machine cannot pass the mini-Turing test;

confounder;

mediator,

“difference-producing”

P(YX = x1 = yʹ | X = x), where the machine observes an event X = x but not the outcome Y, and then asks for the outcome under an alternative event X = xʹ. If it can compute this quantity, the machine can treat its intended action as an observed event (X = x) and ask, “What if I change my mind and do X = xʹ instead?”

free will

No matter how technically proficient the individual robots are at soccer, their team’s performance will improve when they can speak to each other as if they are not preprogrammed robots but autonomous agents believing they have options.