researchers can control for confounders like age, sex, and exposure to environmental pollutants. Nevertheless, the case-control design has some obvious drawbacks. It is retrospective; that means we study people known to have cancer and look backward to discover why. The probability logic is backward too. The data tell us the probability that a cancer patient is a smoker instead of the probability that a smoker will get cancer. It is the latter probability that really matters to a person who wants to know whether he should smoke or not.