Pandora’s Box: A History of the First World War

by Jörn Leonhard

The result would be a European war with worldwide consequences and a novel combination of war and revolution: “Therefore, at the last minute: the warmongers are making a mistake. First, there is no Triple Alliance. Italy will not join in, or anyway not with us; if anything, it will be on the side of the Entente. Second, Britain will not remain neutral but will stand by France; either straight away or at the point when France seems to be in serious danger. Nor will Britain tolerate that German army units march through Belgium, according to a strategic plan that has been public knowledge since 1907. But if Britain fights against us, the whole English world—and especially America—will stand against us.… Third, Japan will not attack Russia, but it probably will attack us, in fond memory of our hostile intervention at the Peace of Shimonoseki. Fourth, the Scandinavian countries (our ‘Germanic’ brothers) will sell us what they can spare, but otherwise they are not favorably disposed to us. Fifth, Austria-Hungary is scarcely a match for the Serbs and Romanians militarily. Economically, it can just starve its way through for three to five years. And it won’t be able to give us anything. Sixth, a revolution in Russia will come at most only if the Russians are defeated. So long as they fight Germany with success, a revolution there is unthinkable.”