Barking Up the Wrong Tree: The Surprising Science Behind Why Everything You Know About Success Is (Mostly) Wrong

by Eric Barker

With dating, you know you need to quit at some point, but when? Some would say “When I meet the right person.” But how do you know the next person won’t be even better? Is the more realistic answer “When I meet a pretty good person and I’m tired of this crap”?

There’s an easy formula that gives you an exact answer for how many dates to go on and how to pick the right person. It’s what math folks call an “optimal stopping problem.”

How many people do you need to date to find the perfect match? Matt Parker explains in his book Things to Make and Do in the Fourth Dimension. First, take a guess at the number of different people you might go out with. A rough guess will do. Obviously you have to sleep, you probably won’t go on a date every night, and you’d like to be married before you’re 112, so the number isn’t as big as you might think. To make it simple, we’ll say it’s 100. We need the square root of that number. (Yes, the calculator app on your smartphone can help you find true love.) In our example, it’s 10. Now go out on dates with 10 people and politely tell them “No, thanks,” but make sure to note who was the best of the bunch. Keep dating until you find somebody who rocks your world more than that person did. Mathematically speaking, this person is your match.

people who expect a fairy-tale relationship experience a lot more disappointment than those who don’t.

When you think you and your partner are “made for each other,” it’s easy to assume you don’t have to work at the relationship.

Early on, “love marriages” are happier than arranged marriages, scoring a 70 out of 91 on an academic “love scale” vs. 58 out of 91. No surprise, right? But later something happens. A decade in, arranged marriages score a 68 and the ones based on love a lowly 40. What’s going on? A lot, certainly. One key factor is that in an arranged marriage you need to deal with reality a bit more from day one. You’re not saying “We’re soulmates!” and then later on becoming disappointed when the universe doesn’t hand you wedded bliss on a silver platter. You’re saying “I’m handcuffed to a stranger and I need to make this work.” So with time, you often do. And as anyone who has actually been married can tell you, it’s going to take some work.

while fairy tales predict problems, seeing love as a “journey” is quite healthy: “It may be romantic for lovers to think they were made for each other, but it backfires when conflicts arise and reality pokes the bubble of perfect unity. Instead, thinking about love as a journey, often involving twists and turns but ultimately moving toward a destination, takes away some of the repercussions of relational conflicts.”

Not only did dreaming not bring you your desires; it actually hurt your chances of getting what you want. No, folks, The Secret doesn’t work.

It turns out that your brain isn’t very good at telling fantasy from reality. (This is why movies are so thrilling.) When you dream, that grey matter feels you already have what you want and so it doesn’t marshal the resources you need to motivate yourself and achieve. Instead, it relaxes. And you do less, you accomplish less, and those dreams stay mere dreams. Positive thinking, by itself, doesn’t work.

If dreaming is so bad, why do we do it? Because it’s the mental equivalent of getting drunk: it feels really good right now but doesn’t lead to good things later. That’s exactly what Oettingen’s research showed: while dreaming, we feel good. But dreaming ends up increasing depression later on. Fantasizing gives us the reward before we’ve accomplished the task and saps the energy we need to realize it. More dreams now mean less achievement later.

After you dream, think, What’s getting in the way of my fantasy? And what will I do to overcome that? The fancy psych term is “implementation intentions.” You and I can just call it “a plan.”

just planning out some basics, like when to do something, where, and how, made students almost 40 percent more likely to follow through with goals.

For any obstacle, just thinking, If X happens, I’ll handle it by doing Y makes a huge difference.

You’re getting your non-conscious mind involved. Instead of waiting until problems arise, you’re giving your brain a habitual response to enact on autopilot.

“What’s the worst that could happen?” By considering the awful possibilities, you make sure you’re ready for them.

WOOP. (Yeah, the formal term is “mental contrasting” but, c’mon. Who wouldn’t rather say “WOOP”?) WOOP—wish, outcome, obstacle, plan—is applicable to most any of your goals, from career to relationships to exercise and weight loss.

First, you get to dream. What’s the thing you wish for? What are you fantasizing about? (I want an awesome job.) Really crystalize it in your mind and see the outcome you desire. (I want to work as a VP at Google.) Then it’s time to face reality. What obstacle is in the way? (I don’t know how to get an interview there.) Then address it. What’s your plan? (I’m going to check LinkedIn and see if I know anyone who works there and can connect me with HR.)

The cool thing is that this process doesn’t sap your drive the way just fantasizing does. But there’s an even bigger benefit to WOOP, one that’s key when you’re thinking about grit and quit. Ironically, this added advantage is that WOOP doesn’t work for everyone, and whether it works isn’t random. In her research, Oettingen found that mental contrasting gives a motivational boost when your goal is something you can achieve but it doesn’t when your goal is outside the realm of possibility. It’s like a personal litmus test for feasibility. When what you want is something reasonable (I’m a qualified candidate who wants a job at Google but isn’t sure about the next step) WOOP will give you a plan ...

only does it tell you when goals are unrealistic and it might be time to quit vs. grit, spending the time to walk through the mental exercise helps you disengage from an unattainable desire and experience less regret when you put it aside.

The real dilemma with pessimism is that it’s actually more accurate. Yes, the cynics are often right. But as we learned in the first chapter, always playing the odds can be a prescription for mediocrity—especially when the thing you’re betting on is yourself. This is why Martin Seligman developed a great balance so you don’t go full-on delusional. He calls it “flexible optimism.” Being a little pessimistic at times keeps us honest. But when the risks are very low (which is true, frankly, for most things) or when the payoffs are very high (such as a career you might want to devote your life to) optimism is the way to go. It’s a balance. A balance that with practice you can find.

With the little things, show optimism. What have you got to lose? And with the big things that can change your life, optimism is the fuel to push yourself past the odds. When things seem high risk and low reward, pessimism is a tool you can dust off to make sure you don’t go all Pollyanna.

Want to be gritty like an awesome insurance salesperson? Sorry, that’s not terribly sexy. Okay, let’s try again: Want to be gritty like a Navy SEAL? You need to remember Seligman’s three Ps; don’t see bad things as permanent, pervasive, or personal.

Research shows that thinking about superheroes can make you physically stronger in the gym. But only if you feel a connection to superheroes. Stories affect the muscles in your body and also the willpower inside your head.

When the story you tell yourself says “This is worth it” you will work harder and stick through the greatest challenges, like Viktor Frankl did. Sometimes the stories are true, sometimes they’re not, but they keep us going.

You need winnable games, novel challenges, goals, and feedback to feel engaged in whatever it is you do.

Ever wonder why it’s so easy to help other people with their problems but often so hard to deal with your own? That distance you feel with your friend’s issues shifts them from emotionally fraught problems to fun challenges. They go from stress grenades to cool puzzles. Reframing problems as game-like challenges increases resilience and reduces stress.

what old activities and routines take up a bunch of your time but provide little value?