AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order

by Kai-Fu Lee

With artificial intelligence, China’s progress allows for the research talent and creative capacity of nearly one-fifth of humanity to contribute to the task of distributing and utilizing artificial intelligence. Combine this with the country’s gladiatorial entrepreneurs, unique internet ecosystem, and proactive government push, and China’s entrance to the field of AI constitutes a major accelerant to AI that was absent for previous GPTs. Reviewing the preceding arguments, I believe we can confidently state a few things. First, during the industrial era, new technology has been associated with long-term job creation and wage growth. Second, despite this general trend toward economic improvement, GPTs are rare and substantial enough that each one’s impact on jobs should be evaluated independently. Third, of the three widely recognized GPTs of the modern era, the skill biases of steam power and electrification boosted both productivity and employment. ICT has lifted the former but not necessarily the latter, contributing to falling wages for many workers in the developed world and greater inequality. Finally, AI will be a GPT, one whose skill biases and speed of adoption—catalyzed by digital dissemination, VC funding, and China—suggest it will lead to negative impacts on employment and income distribution. If the above arguments hold true, the next questions are clear: What jobs are really at risk? And how bad will it be?