One of the most important foundational elements of my investment philosophy is my conviction that we can’t know what the “macro future” has in store for us in terms of things like economies, markets or geopolitics. Or, to put it more precisely, few people are able on balance to know more about the macro future than others. And it’s only if we know more than others (whether that consists of having better data; doing a superior job of interpreting the data we have; knowing what actions to take on the basis of our interpretation; or having the emotional fortitude required to take those actions)
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