Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science Book 122)

by Richard McElreath

In both the woodpecker and neutrino dramas, the key dilemma is whether the falsification is real or spurious. Measurement is complicated in both cases, but in quite different ways, rendering both true-detection and false-detection plausible. Popper

即便举出反例，也要考虑false positive，或者false negative的可能性。