Kapur and coauthor Milan Vaishnav once tested this theory via an ingenious academic study. Construction magnates suddenly asked to take capital out of their businesses to refund their political allies would then be short of cash for other activities, they hypothesized, most notably starting new buildings.41 “Cement is an indispensable ingredient for construction,” Kapur told me. “So we looked for data to see if cement demand would fall around election time. And it did. In fact, the link shows up beautifully.”
