Penn Jillette

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limit keeps you out of the first 2.5 percent of the total audience, and the lower limit keeps you out of the last 2.5 percent.) With nothing more than the Copernican principle and a grade school calculation, you can come up with a 95 percent confidence interval for the longevity of something like a Broadway play. That is fairly amazing.
When Einstein Walked with Gödel: Excursions to the Edge of Thought
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