Overconfidence is nearly universal. But is it distributed equally? Evidently not. In a 1999 paper in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, David A. Dunning and Justin Kruger drew a poignant conclusion from their research: The most incompetent people have the most inflated notion of their abilities. “Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices,” the two psychologists observed, “but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it.” Dunning and Kruger administered three sorts of tests to their subjects: logic, English grammar, and humor (where
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