Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

ASSASSINATION AS MARKETING Those readers who may have tried to get rid of pebbles in their shoes (that is, someone who bothers you and doesn’t get the hint) might know that “contracts” on ordinary citizens (that is, to trigger their funeral) are relatively easy to perform and inexpensive to buy. There is a relatively active underground market for these contracts. In general, you need to pay a bit more to “make it look like an accident.” However, skilled historians and observers of martial history would recommend the exact opposite: in politics, you should have to pay more to make it look intentional. In fact, what Captain Mark Weisenborn, Pasquale Cirillo, and I discovered, when we tried doing a systematic study of violence (debunking the confabulatory thesis by Steven Pinker that we mentioned earlier, holding that violence has dropped), was that war numbers have been historically inflated … by both sides. Both the Mongols (during their sweep across Eurasia in the Middle Ages) and their panicky victims had an incentive to exaggerate, which acted as a deterrent. Mongols weren’t interested in killing everybody; they just wanted submission, which came cheaply through terror. Further, having spent some time perusing the genetic imprints of invaded populations, it is clear that if the warriors coming from the Eastern steppes left a cultural imprint, they certainly left their genes at home. Gene transfer between areas happens by group migrations, inclement climate, and unaccommo...