The problem for investors is it’s hard to find businesses that can keep up high profits. We can’t predict what businesses will maintain profits. Even if we look for high past profits and the reason why—the moat—most businesses see profits fall over time. In a later chapter, we try to identify moats in a scientific, repeatable way. But our chance of finding a business that can sustain profits is still as good as flipping a coin. There are three reasons why:
