Also, it implies that the more surprising the evidence T—that is, the smaller P(T) is—the more convinced one should become of its cause S. No wonder Bayes and his friend Price, as Episcopal ministers, saw this as an effective rejoinder to Hume. If T is a miracle (“Christ rose from the dead”), and S is a closely related hypothesis (“Christ is the son of God”), our degree of belief in S is very dramatically increased if we know for a fact that T is true.
