principle: Uncertainty over expected value (EV) just gets folded into EV. So, if I know that one of option A or B is going to be great, and the other’s going to be a disaster, but I’m totally unsure which is which, then they have the same expected value. That’s a powerful reframe. Thinking to yourself, “One of these options is great and the other’s terrible, but I don’t know which is which” is paralyzing—but thinking to yourself, “These options have the same expected value as each other” is liberating. (Of course this assumes you can’t cheaply purchase more information about A and B to reduce
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