Joel Schaefer

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Why might my belief not be true? What other evidence might be out there bearing on my belief? Are there similar areas I can look toward to gauge whether similar beliefs to mine are true? What sources of information could I have missed or minimized on the way to reaching my belief? What are the reasons someone else could have a different belief, what’s their support, and why might they be right instead of me? What other perspectives are there as to why things turned out the way they did? Just by asking ourselves these questions, we are taking a big step toward calibration. But there is only so ...more
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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