Joel Schaefer

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When Nick the Greek won with a seven and a deuce, he fielded that outcome into the skill bucket, taking credit for his brilliant strategy. When he lost with that hand—a much more common occurrence—he wrote it off as bad luck. His fielding error meant he never questioned his beliefs, no matter how much he lost. We’re all like Nick the Greek sometimes. Uncertainty—luck and hidden information—gave him the leeway to make fielding errors about why he was losing. We all face uncertainty. And we all make fielding errors.
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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