Suppose someone says, “I flipped a coin and it landed heads four times in a row. How likely is that to occur?” It feels like that should be a pretty easy question to answer. Once we do the math on the probability of heads on four consecutive 50-50 flips, we can determine that would happen 6.25% of the time (.50 × .50 × .50 × .50). That’s making the same mistake as Vizzini. The problem is that we came to this answer without knowing anything about the coin or the person flipping it.
