Win Bigly: Persuasion in a World Where Facts Don't Matter
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Read between February 7 - February 10, 2018
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The common worldview, shared by most humans, is that there is one objective reality, and we humans can understand that reality through a rigorous application of facts and reason. This view of the world imagines that some people have already achieved a fact-based type of enlightenment that is compatible with science and logic, and they are trying to help the rest of us see the world the “right” way. As far as I can tell, most people share that interpretation of the world. The only wrinkle with that worldview is that we all think we are the enlightened ones. And we assume the people who disagree ...more
Peter Keller
Key point- most people think they view the world through a logjical filter. Confirmation bias supports their own view to themselves
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Candidate Trump matched the emotional state of his base, and matched their priorities too.
Peter Keller
Candidate Trump matched the emotional states of his base and their priorities also and then made big claims to both anchor his opposition to wild and out rages sides of his argument and also to establish himself outside of the crowded middle as the one candidate who truly cared about various issues that mattered to his base
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don’t feel shame or embarrassment like normal people.
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Cognitive Dissonance This is a mental condition in which people rationalize why their actions are inconsistent with their thoughts and beliefs.
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Confirmation Bias This is the human tendency to see all evidence as supporting your beliefs, even if the evidence is nothing more than coincidence. This is another common phenomenon that we believe happens only to other people.
Peter Keller
Another key point here. We as humans are subject to cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias. But we don’t recognize it or discount it when it affects us and instead we only think it affects other people, typically the enemy
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PERSUASION TIP 2 Humans are hardwired to reciprocate favors. If you want someone’s cooperation in the future, do something for that person today.
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PERSUASION TIP 3 Persuasion is effective even when the subject recognizes the technique. Everyone knows that stores list prices at $9.99 because $10.00 sounds like too much. It still works.
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Make a claim that is directionally accurate but has a big exaggeration or factual error in it. Wait for people to notice the exaggeration or error and spend endless hours talking about how wrong it is. When you dedicate focus and energy to an idea, you remember it. And the things that have the most mental impact on you will irrationally seem as though they are high in priority, even if they are not. That’s persuasion.
Peter Keller
How to use “intentional wrongness” to persuade
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Social media folks mentioned me in the same sentence with Silver countless times during the election, exactly as I had hoped.
Peter Keller
If you have low credibility, make sure you are debating/ being discussed in the same situation as a credible person and some of their credibility will run off on you
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PERSUASION TIP 4 The things that you think about the most will irrationally rise in importance in your mind.
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Master Persuaders move your energy to the topics that help them, independent of facts and reason.
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PERSUASION TIP 5 An intentional “error” in the details of your message will attract criticism. The attention will make your message rise in importance—at least in people’s minds—simply because everyone is talking about it.
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facts are weak persuasion.
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PERSUASION TIP 6 If you are not a Master Persuader running for president, find the sweet spot between apologizing too much, which signals a lack of confidence, and never apologizing for anything, which makes you look like a sociopath.
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how intentional “mistakes” can aid in memory retention, I recommend the book Impossible to Ignore, by Dr. Carmen Simon. The gist of it is that you need to surprise the brain or make it work a little extra to form memories. Our brains automatically delete our routine memories fairly quickly. Most of us don’t know what we were doing on this day a year ago. But we easily remember things that violate our expectations.
Peter Keller
Surprise the brain or make it work harder to form memories.
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A good general rule is that people are more influenced by visual persuasion, emotion, repetition, and simplicity than they are by details and facts.
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Humans think they are rational, and they think they understand their reality. But they are wrong on both counts.
Peter Keller
Humans think they are rational, and they think they understand their reality. But they are wrong on both counts.
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people are irrational 90 percent of the time but don’t know it. We can be rational in trivial situations—such as deciding what time to leave the house to drive to work. But we are almost never rational when it comes to matters of love, family, pets, politics, ego, entertainment, and almost anything else that matters to us emotionally. When our feelings turn on, our sense of reason shuts off. The freaky part is that we don’t recognize when it is happening to us. We think we are reasonable and rational most of the time.
Peter Keller
A person believes he is rational 90% of the time, and irrational 10%. The truth is the opposite and he does not realize it. Any time feelings, emotions, ego etc is involved AT ALL, we are irrational.
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We literally make our decisions first and then create elaborate rationalizations for them after the fact.
Peter Keller
We literally make our decisions first and then create elaborate rationalizations for them after the fact.
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you must understand two concepts: cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias. These two concepts explain almost everything that puzzles you about why people act the way they do.
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The most common trigger for cognitive dissonance is when a person’s self-image doesn’t fit their observations.
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The tell is not the quality of the explanations. The tell is how many of them there are. If you have a situation that can be explained with one reasonable explanation, that reason might be close to reality. But having lots of different explanations is usually a clear tell for cognitive dissonance.
Peter Keller
If you have a situation that can be explained with one reasonable explanation, that reason might be close to reality. But having lots of different explanations is usually a clear tell for cognitive dissonance.
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PERSUASION TIP 7 It is easy to fit completely different explanations to the observed facts. Don’t trust any interpretation of reality that isn’t able to predict.
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Confirmation bias is the human reflex to interpret any new information as being supportive of the opinions we already hold.
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I am not saying the majority of scientists are wrong about climate science. I’m making the narrow point that it would be normal and natural for that group of people to be experiencing a mass hallucination that is consistent with their financial and psychological incentives.
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PERSUASION TIP 8 People are more influenced by the direction of things than the current state of things.
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we make our decisions first—for irrational reasons—and we rationalize them later as having something to do with facts and reason.
Peter Keller
we make our decisions first—for irrational reasons—and we rationalize them later as having something to do with facts and reason.
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PERSUASION TIP 9 Display confidence (either real or faked) to improve your persuasiveness. You have to believe yourself, or at least appear as if you do, in order to get anyone else to believe.
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PERSUASION TIP 10 Persuasion is strongest when the messenger is credible.
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Strangers are more likely to grant you the assumption of credibility, even if you are only a student
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PERSUASION TIP 12 If you want the audience to embrace your content, leave out any detail that is both unimportant and would give people a reason to think, That’s not me. Design into your content enough blank spaces so people can fill them in with whatever makes them happiest.
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A talent stack is a collection of skills that work well together and make the person with those skills unique and valuable.
Peter Keller
A talent stack is a key concept to become exceptional- rather than becoming amazing in one discipline, become very good at several disciplines that are together amazing rare and valuable.
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PERSUASION TIP 13 Use the High-Ground Maneuver to frame yourself as the wise adult in the room. It forces others to join you or be framed as the small thinkers.
Peter Keller
When faced with a charge of hypocrisy, that is a good indicator that a high ground maneuver can be well deployed
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While analogies are useful and important for explaining new concepts, here’s the important point for our purposes: Analogies are terrible for persuasion.
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PERSUASION TIP 14 When you attack a person’s belief, the person under attack is more likely to harden his belief than to abandon it, even if your argument is airtight.
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People are irrational. If something feels as if it should work, most of us conclude that it does.
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Fear is the strongest level of persuasion,
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The first thing you hear about a new topic automatically becomes an anchor in your mind that biases your future opinions.
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The Hitler analogy was effective not because analogies are logical or persuasive but because any association of two things is persuasive. If you compare any two things long enough, their qualities start to merge in our irrational minds. The illusion created by analogies is that if two situations have anything in common, perhaps they have lots in common.
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analogies are good at explaining new concepts: If your analogy includes a strong negative association (such as Hitler), you could think of the analogy as a holster and the negative association as a gun. The gun is persuasive. The holster is not.
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PERSUASION TIP 15 Studies say humans more easily get addicted to unpredictable rewards than they do predictable rewards.
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The next time someone is doing something you find objectionable, don’t attack that person’s actions. Instead, ask if this is who the person wants to be. Most people think they are good people, even if they sometimes do bad things. If you remind them of their identity, and their aspirations for their identity, you will usually be met with cognitive dissonance and an implied promise to change.
Peter Keller
Powerful tool here- The next time someone is doing something you find objectionable, don’t attack that person’s actions. Instead, ask if this is who the person wants to be. Most people think they are good people, even if they sometimes do bad things. If you remind them of their identity, and their aspirations for their identity, you will usually be met with cognitive dissonance and an implied promise to change.
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and that makes everything easier. Credibility, of any sort, is persuasive.
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PERSUASION TIP 16 It is easier to persuade a person who believes you are persuasive.
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Here’s a checklist you can use to see how well you set the table for your own future persuasion.
Peter Keller
Credibility shortcuts Dress for the part Improve your physical appearance through diet, exercise, hair care, etc. Broadcast your credentials in a way that appears natural and non braggy Brand yourself as a winner Meet in the most impressive space that you can control Set expectations ahead of time If people expect you to ask for the moon, they will be delighted when you agree to accept less Pre-suade with thoughts and images that will bias people toward a frame of mind that is compatible with your upcoming persuasion Bring high energy
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Whenever there is mass confusion and complexity, people automatically gravitate to the strongest, most confident voice. We humans don’t like uncertainty, so we are attracted to those who offer clarity and simple answers,
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PERSUASION TIP 17 People prefer certainty over uncertainty, even when the certainty is wrong.
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reticular activation. In this context, it refers to the brain’s natural ability to filter out information that you don’t need, making it is easier to spot the things you do need. That’s why you can hear someone call your name in a noisy room when you can’t make out any other words.
Peter Keller
Reticular activation
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general, we notice things that matter and ignore things that don’t. We
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our minds irrationally assign importance to whatever we think about the most.
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