Playing with Fire: The 1968 Election and the Transformation of American Politics

by Lawrence O'Donnell

Studds and Hoeh’s study of how convention delegates were awarded based on the results of the New Hampshire primary convinced them that they had a good chance of getting McCarthy more delegates than his election day vote total would deserve. More study found more ways to manipulate the rules in McCarthy’s favor in New Hampshire and other states. But the single most important strategic insight that Lowenstein, Studds, and Hoeh had was the new paradigm they applied to the concept of winning. They believed there was a way to win without getting the most votes. They imported the paradigm from sports betting where you could win even if you bet on the losing team as long as the losing team didn’t lose by as much as it was expected to. If McCarthy was expected to get only 10 percent of the vote and he won 15 percent, then the McCarthy campaign could celebrate their surprising “win.”