Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

by Peter Turchin

In the 1860s, Americans learned that large-scale complex societies are actually fragile, and that a descent into a civil war can be rapid.

Cliodynamics,

dynamical system,

First, are there general principles of social dynamics? Second, even supposing we discover such principles by studying historical societies, will they still apply to the very different societies of today?

Strong empirical patterns suggest that instability dynamics in agrarian societies may be governed by general mechanisms.

Second, rapid expansion of population results in elite overproduction—an increased number of aspirants for the limited supply of elite positions. Increased intraelite competition leads to the formation of rival patronage networks vying for state rewards.

structure of dynamical feedbacks

Secular Cycles (Turchin and Nefedov 2009:313–14): (1) the Neo-Malthusian principle, (2) the principle of elite overproduction, and (3) the structural-demographic causes of political instability.

Thus, elite overproduction increases the probability of violent intraelite conflict. One common response by the established elites under these conditions is to close ranks and exclude other elite aspirants from power, which causes the latter to organize as counter-elites.

Two other causes are popular discontent resulting from falling living standards, and fiscal crisis. These three causes interact in producing conditions ripe for political violence.

Structural-Demographic Theory

Youth bulges tend to be politically highly destabilizing, because a sudden increase in new workers joining the labor force tends to depress their employment prospects and wages (Easterlin 1980, Macunovich 2002). Furthermore, young adults in the 20–29 age cohort are particularly susceptible to radicalization.

intraelite competition drives up conspicuous consumption, which has an effect of inflating the level of income that is deemed to be necessary to maintain elite status.

As Einstein famously said, a model should be as simple as possible, but no simpler than that.

It’s like an earthquake. As tectonic forces build up within a fault line, an earthquake becomes increasingly probable. However, for that earthquake to occur, it has to be triggered—perhaps by a small slip between the plates deep underground. Most such tiny ruptures have no lasting effects, but occasionally one will trigger a cascade of other breakages,