Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

by Peter Turchin

The divergence of economic interests and differences over the morality of slavery were not new issues on the eve of the Civil War; they divided the American elites from the establishment of the Republic. Traditional historiography does not provide a good answer to the question of why sectionalization of American politics greatly intensified after 1845 and resulted in armed conflict in 1861: “explanation of the uncontrolled growth of sectionalism during the 1850s has been one of the major problems of American historical scholarship” (Potter 1976: 30). The Structural-Demographic Theory provides the missing link. Explosive growth of economic elites after the 1820s, especially in the North, led to an expansion in the cohort of elite aspirants vying for political power. Intensifying intraelite competition after 1845 fractured the ruling class by reducing the willingness of the elites to seek compromise.