Implicit in this focus on metrics is a clear understanding of the difference between trailing indicators (such as gross revenue, profit, ROI, and market share) and leading indicators that might predict future success (such as customer engagement, satisfaction, unit economics, repeat usage, and conversion rates). Business plans tend to be made up of forecasts and predictions, always denominated in gross metrics (what we call in the Lean Startup movement vanity metrics). What Silicon Valley has learned the hard way over the past few decades is that “no business plan survives first contact with
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