The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond

by George Friedman

The United States has become an empire. It is an empire of power and global reach, but of course not a formal empire. Its power derives from the size of its economy, its military, and the seductive power of its culture. These in turn derive from its regime, land, and people. It is all the more impressive because it has no formal structure. It simply is the most powerful agent, for good or bad, in the world. It is also a nation that is profoundly uncomfortable being an empire. The United States, in 1776, had the first modern uprising against an existing empire, and as a nation it does not welcome the dangers and complexities of global responsibility. It did not become an empire by choice, nor can it abandon the reality of what it is. The United States is a young country and an even younger empire. Its vast power maintains it even in the face of its ineptness or global condemnation. The United States is learning how to be an empire, creating enormous pressures on the world and on American institutions and the American public.