The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond

by George Friedman

The three previous cycles have been distinct. The first started with the drafting of the Constitution in 1787 and emerged from the Revolutionary War and its consequences. This first institutional cycle lasted seventy-eight years until the end of the Civil War and the amendments to the Constitution in 1865, establishing the federal government but leaving its relation to the states unclear. The second institutional cycle emerged in 1865 from the Civil War and established the authority of the federal government over the states, lasting until the end of World War II. The third institutional cycle began in 1945, emerging from World War II, and dramatically expanded the authority of the federal government not only over states but over the economy and society as a whole. If this pattern continues as it has, the next institutional cycle will begin around 2025. The coming fourth cycle will redefine the relationship of the federal government to itself.