historians infer facts of the past based on evidence surviving in the present—written documents of different kinds, archaeological finds, assorted artifacts, and the like. Thus, historians do not trade in proofs, but in probabilities. Their craft is not mechanical, like math or logic, but more of an art, like detective work—following leads, assessing clues, weighing scenarios, seeking the best explanation given all the evidence, and so on. And that is the goal, of course—determining the most probable account of what took place in light of all the relevant information.
