Hit Makers: Why Things Become Popular

by Derek Thompson

The president is shrinking, and so is the political party. For the past half century, the best predictor of a political candidate’s electoral success was the so-called invisible primary of endorsements from politicians, party leaders, and donors. According to one theory called “the party decides,” it is Democratic and Republican elites, not voters, who decide on their favorite candidates, and these authority figures send signals through the media to the obedient rank and file. It is quite like the old information flow of the music industry: Authority figures (labels and DJs) blasted their preferred products (songs) through scarce and powerful channels of exposure (radio stations) and consumers typically obeyed (bought albums). But in the 2016 primaries, the apparent power of advertising all but vanished. The GOP candidates with the most elite support, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, spent about $140 million on television ads through early 2016, but they both flamed out. The GOP candidate with the least elite support, Donald Trump, spent less than $20 million on advertising. But he still won the exposure primary in a landslide, because his outrageous statements and improbable candidacy were such irresistible fodder for networks and publishers desperate for audiences. Through the summer of 2016, Trump had earned $3 billion in “free media,” which was more than the rest of his rivals combined. With the rise of alternative media sources, party elites lost their ability to control the...