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May 8 - August 17, 2018
renminbi could be in a position to rival the dollar within the next ten years’.
The growth in the US national debt, in the wake of the financial crisis that began on Wall Street in 2008, raised fears that America might be tempted to use inflation to make it easier to repay its debts.
Compared to unproven Chinese institutions, the ‘package of power’ underpinning the dollar still looks relatively good.
Many Western liberals have long argued that China’s challenge to the global order will ultimately founder on the fragility of its domestic political system.
Yet, while the West’s political institutions seem more stable, it is not obvious that they will always create better outcomes and stronger states.
Even as Asia’s share of global output surpassed that of the West, the average American or European remained far richer than the average Chinese or Indian – although the gap is narrowing.
As well as being a potential source of tension, the West’s superior living standards are also a significant source of ‘soft power’ and international prestige.
But international comparisons, such as those carried out by Transparency International, still suggest that Western institutions are relatively clean compared to their counterparts in Asia.
These relatively subtle questions of living standards, corruption and institutional power will matter a lot to the global balance of power, if international peace and stability is broadly maintained.
the crumbling of the Western-dominated world order has increased the chance of conflict – not just in East Asia, but also in the Middle East and in eastern Europe.
emerging confrontation is between the world’s two largest economies means that the survival of a globalised economy is at stake in the Asia-Pacific – much more than in the Middle East or in Ukraine.
the increasing concentration of wealth and weaponry in Asia means that if conflicts in the region do break out, they will swiftly have effects all over the world.
United States remains the most powerful military force in the Pacific.
China is no longer prepared to accept American dominance of China’s ‘backyard’.
Overturning America’s global role is a long-term goal for China.
The question of whether and how the Americans should resist Chinese ambitions in the Asia-Pacific is likely to be the most critical issue in international relations over the coming decades,
the realists argue that the US should tacitly grant China a sphere of influence in its region.
The strength of regional support for a strong continued US role in the Asia-Pacific makes America’s determination to push back against Chinese hegemony in the Pacific both morally defensible and strategically feasible.
holding the line in the Asia-Pacific until such time as China changes internally offers no certainties.
one danger of the American pivot to Asia is that it will eventually lead to a clash between Chinese and American nationalism.
there is a strong constituency in the US for a retreat from globalism: repudiating international military and trading commitments.
An America that steps back from its global commitments, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership or the US–Japan security treaty, would further erode the post Cold War international order. That, in turn, would almost certainly encourage both China and Russia to seek to fill any vacuums left by US power
As Western and Asian political leaders look ahead, they should be struck by the extent to which the biggest dangers they and their citizens face are very similar in nature. These challenges include global financial stability, inequality, corruption, cyber security, jihadist terrorism, nuclear proliferation and climate change.
The kind of international treaties that govern arms control or the laws of war do not yet exist in cyberspace. Developing them will be one of the biggest diplomatic challenges of the next decade.
it seems increasingly evident that one kind of transnational problem – climate change – is indirectly linked to another – terrorism.
Further major terror attacks or continuing military success for Islamic State could gradually persuade East and West to make common cause against the jihadist violence that threatens them all.
US–Chinese efforts to work together on the common problems posed by a nuclear North Korea are much more fraught than they should be.
Globalisation has helped Asian nations to lift hundreds of millions of people, but it also seems to have contributed to social inequality all over the world. The leaders of both East and West have a shared interest in establishing a more equitable and stable form of globalisation.
The popular revolt against inequality in the US could easily spiral into protectionism
The great political challenge of the twenty-first century will be to manage the process of Easternisation in the common interests of mankind.
