Which was odd when you thought about it. Most real-life judgments did not offer probabilities as clean and knowable as the judgment of which book bag contained mostly red poker chips. The most you could hope to show with such experiments is that people were very poor intuitive statisticians—so poor they couldn’t even pick the book bag that offered them the most favorable odds. People who proved to be expert book bag pickers might still stumble when faced with judgments in which the probabilities were far more difficult to know—say, whether some foreign dictator did, or did not, possess weapons
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