in 1968, in an academic journal called American Psychologist. He began by pointing out the small mountain of research that suggested that expert judgment was less reliable than algorithms. “I can summarize this ever-growing body of literature,” wrote Goldberg, “by pointing out that over a rather large array of clinical judgment tasks (including by now some which were specifically selected to show the clinician at his best and the actuary at his worst), rather simple actuarial formulae typically can be constructed to perform at a level of validity no lower than that of the clinical expert.”
