The beauty of the experiment was that there was a correct answer to the question: What is the probability that I am holding the bag of mostly red chips? It was provided by a statistical formula called Bayes’s theorem (after Thomas Bayes, who, strangely, left the formula for others to discover in his papers after his death, in 1761). Bayes’s rule allowed you to calculate the true odds, after each new chip was pulled from it, that the book bag in question was the one with majority white, or majority red, chips. Before any chips had been withdrawn, those odds were 50:50—the bag in your hands was
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God after so much time trying to understand Bayes's theorem, this might be the most intuitive explanation I've seen.
