These are the basic principles: Avoid straight-line forecasting and foggy discussions of the coming century. Be skeptical of sweeping single-factor theories. Stifle biases of all kinds, be they political, cultural or “anchoring.” Avoid falling for the assumption that the recent past is prologue for the distant future, and remember that churn and crisis are the norm. Recognize that any economy, no matter how successful or how broken, is more likely to return to the long-term average growth rate for its income class than to remain abnormally hot (or cold) indefinitely. Watch for balanced growth,
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