The Rise and Fall of Nations: Ten Rules of Change in the Post-Crisis World

by Ruchir Sharma

Commenting on the Indian statistical bureau’s frequent revisions of official economic data, former central bank governor Y. V. Reddy once cracked to me that while the future is always uncertain, in India even the past is uncertain.

The joke in the AI field is that if you say AI is coming in twenty years, you can get investors to fund your work; if you say five years they will remember and expect you to deliver, and if you say one hundred years they won’t be interested.

In India, many of the top tycoons command sprawling empires that often include at least one but often all four of the following businesses: a local hospital, a school, a hotel, and a local newspaper. One of India’s top newspaper publishers recently pointed out to me that this rule of four now often holds true even for local kingpins in relatively small towns. The reason is simple. Most people understand it is wrong to take cash bribes, but few in India see much of a problem in accepting gifts in kind, even one as valuable as free medical treatment for a family member, free schooling for a child, free hotel banquet facilities for a niece’s wedding, or favorable coverage for one’s business or political ambitions in the local rag.