If we really know nothing about our raffle ahead of time, he showed, then after drawing a winning ticket on our first try we should expect that the proportion of winning tickets in the whole pool is exactly 2/3. If we buy three tickets and all of them are winners, the expected proportion of winning tickets is exactly 4/5. In fact, for any possible drawing of w winning tickets in n attempts, the expectation is simply the number of wins plus one, divided by the number of attempts plus two: (w+1)⁄(n+2). This incredibly simple scheme for estimating probabilities is known as Laplace’s Law,
