Dr. John: Trivial question. One half, of course, since you are assuming 50 percent odds for each and independence between draws. NNT: What do you say, Tony? Fat Tony: I’d say no more than 1 percent, of course. NNT: Why so? I gave you the initial assumption of a fair coin, meaning that it was 50 percent either way. Fat Tony: You are either full of crap or a pure sucker to buy that “50 pehcent” business. The coin gotta be loaded. It can’t be a fair game. (Translation: It is far more likely that your assumptions about the fairness are wrong than the coin delivering ninety-nine heads in
