Jaime de Mora

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The epistemological consequence is that with Mediocristan-style randomness it is not possible* to have a Black Swan surprise such that a single event can dominate a phenomenon. Primo, the first hundred days should reveal all you need to know about the data. Secondo, even if you do have a surprise, as we saw in the case of the heaviest human, it would not be consequential.
Incerto 4-Book Bundle: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile
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