This is also the problem of silent evidence. It is why we do not see Black Swans: we worry about those that happened, not those that may happen but did not. It is why we Platonify, liking known schemas and well-organized knowledge—to the point of blindness to reality.
If you want to know what I'll know in a year, you not only need a LIST OF BOOKS I'VE STUDIED, but also A LIST OF BOOK I WILL STUDY.
The books on my list are hidden to the outsider. Maybe, based on the library they see, they can get a good idea of what I'll read, but there may be a BLACK SWAN BOOK?
What is a BLACK SWAN BOOK? It's a book that changes the DIRECTION OF MY THINKING.
The CODDLING OF THE AMERICAN MIND was such a book. I read it as a result of reading TRIGGERED by Donald Trump, Jr. NOBODY WOULD HAVE PREDICTED that I would have read a book by him. I didn't care much for Donald Trump. Now, my whole way of thinking got turned around.
I don't like SOCIALISTS who want to control every DOLLAR OF MINE and every THOUGHT OF MINE. Well, they can go hug a Vermont Teddy Bear.
