Incerto 4-Book Bundle: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

But have the integrity to deliver your “because” very sparingly; try to limit it to situations where the “because” is derived from experiments, not backward-looking history.

Unless you have done experiments using THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD, any causal link you claim is without merit. Use the I DON'T KNOW argument instead. Why? Because you really don't know.