The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future
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eventually online connectivity—that do the work that more aluminum atoms used to do.
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The more we embed intelligence and smarts into the objects in our households and offices, the more we’ll treat these articles as social property.
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He said it was a service selling access to reading material.
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Access mode brings consumers closer to the producer, and in fact the consumer often acts as the producer, or what futurist Alvin Toffler called in 1980 the “prosumer.” If instead of owning software, you access software, then you can share in its improvement. But it also means you have been recruited. You, the new prosumer, are encouraged to identify bugs and report them (replacing a company’s expensive QA department),
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Access is also a way to deliver new things in close to real time. Unless something runs in real time, it does not count. As convenient as taxis are, they are often not real time enough.
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If smartly connected, the benefits of existing products can be unbundled and remixed in unexpected and delightful ways. If smartly connected, products melt into services that can be
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accessed continuously. If smartly connected, accessing is the default.
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In other words, the long-term trend in our modern lives is that most goods and services will be short-term use. Therefore most goods and services are candidates for rental and sharing.
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They are “nonrival,” which means you can rent the same movie to as many people who want to rent it this hour. Sharing intangibles scales magnificently.
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For better or worse, our lives are accelerating, and the only speed fast enough is instant. The speed of electrons will be the speed of the future. Deliberate vacations from this speed will remain a choice,
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We are at the midpoint in a hundred-year scramble toward greater decentralization.
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That is, once we wrapped the globe in endless circles of wires crossing the deserts and beneath the oceans, decentralization was not only possible, but inevitable.
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The consequence of moving away from centralized organization to the flatter worlds of networks is that everything—both tangible and intangible—must flow faster to keep the whole
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Since it was launched in 2009, the currency has $3 billion in circulation and 100,000 vendors accepting the coins as payment. Bitcoin may be most famous for its anonymity and the black markets it
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The most important innovation in Bitcoin is its “blockchain,” the mathematical technology that powers it. The blockchain is a radical invention that can decentralize many other systems beyond money.
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Proponents like to say that with bitcoin you trust math instead of governments.
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A platform is a foundation created by a firm that lets other firms build products and services upon it. It is neither market nor firm, but something new. A platform, like a department store, offers stuff it did not create. One of the first widely successful platforms was Microsoft’s operating system (OS).
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Ecosystems are governed by coevolution, which is a type of biological
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codependence, a mixture of competition and cooperation. In true ecological fashion, supporting vendors who cooperate in one dimension may also compete in others. For instance, Amazon sells both brand-new books from publishers and, via its ecosystem of used-book stores, cheaper used
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versions. Used-book vendors compete with one another and w...
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Platforms are factories for services; services favor access over ownership.
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A cloud is a colony of millions of computers that are braided together seamlessly to act as a single large computer. The bulk of what you do on the web and phone today is done on cloud computing. Though invisible, clouds run our digital lives.
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Clouds are also elastic, meaning they can be enlarged or shrunk almost in real time by adding or dropping computers to their network. And
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They can provide the famous five nines (99.999 percent) of near perfect service performance.
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The cloud does all the work, while the device we hold is just the window into the cloud’s work.
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Google might also fact-check the statements in the letter with its new truth-checker called Knowledge-Based Trust.
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all this is sitting somewhere, but nowhere in particular, it changes how I think of myself. I am larger than before, but thinner too. I am faster, but at times shallower. I think more like a cloud with fewer boundaries, open to change and full of contradiction. I contain multitudes!
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will be not just Me Plus, but We Plus.
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Separation from the comfort and new identity afforded by the cloud will be horrendous and unbearable.
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the cloud is our extended soul. Or, if you prefer, our extended self. In
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While the enormous clouds of Amazon, Facebook, and Google are distributed, they are not decentralized. The machines are run by enormous companies, not by a funky network of computers run by your funky peers.
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the Hong Kong students devised a way to communicate without sending their messages to a central cell phone tower or through the company servers of Weibo (the Chinese Twitter) or WeChat (their Facebook) or email. Instead they loaded a tiny app onto their phones called FireChat. Two FireChat-enabled phones could speak to each other directly, via wifi radio, without jumping up to a cell tower.
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Who gets your taxes if all the work is being done in the cloud? Who owns the data, you or the cloud? If all your email and voice calls go through the cloud, who is responsible for what it says? In the new intimacy of the cloud, when you have half-baked thoughts, weird daydreams, should they not be treated differently than what you really believe?
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The underlying mathematics and physics remain. As we increase dematerialization, decentralization, simultaneity, platforms, and the cloud—as we increase all those at once, access will continue to displace ownership. For most things in daily life, accessing will trump owning.
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I feel a deep connection to the primeval. I feel like an ancient hunter-gatherer who owns nothing as he wends his way through the complexities of nature, conjuring up a tool just in time for its use and then leaving it behind as he moves on. It is the farmer who needs a barn for his accumulation. The digital native is free to race ahead and explore the unknown.
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Accessing rather than owning keeps me agile and fresh, ready for whatever is next.
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The frantic global rush to connect everyone to everyone all the time is quietly giving rise to a revised technological version of socialism.
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Widespread adoption of the share-friendly copyright license known as Creative Commons encourages people to legally allow their own images, text, or music to be used and improved by others without the need for additional permission.
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In other words, sharing and sampling content is the new default.
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There were more than one billion instances of Creative Commons permissions in use in 2015. The rise of ubi...
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Collaborative commenting sites like Digg, StumbleUpon, Reddit, Pinterest, and Tumblr enable hundreds of millions of ordinary folks to find photos, images, news items, and ideas drawn from professional and friends’ sources, and then collectively rank them, rate them, share them, forward them, annotate them, and curate them into streams or collections. These sites act as collaborative filters, promoting the best
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stuff at the moment. Nearly every day another startup proudly heralds a new way to harness community action.
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These developments suggest a steady move toward a sort of digital “social-ism” uniquely t...
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It is not class warfare. It is not anti-American; indeed, digital socialism may be the newest American innovation.
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This new brand of socialism currently operates in the realm of culture and economics, rather than government—for now.
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However, unlike those older strains of red-flag socialism, this new digital socialism runs over a borderless internet, via network communications, generating intangible services throughout a tightly integrated global economy. It is designed to heighten individual autonomy and thwart centralization. It is decentralization extreme.
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Instead of gathering on collective farms, we gather in collective worlds. Instead of state factories, we have desktop factories connected to virtual co-ops.
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we share scripts ...
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I use “socialism” because technically it is the best word to indicate a range of technologies that rely on social interactions for their power.
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Broadly speaking, social action is what websites and net-connected apps generate when they harness input from very large networks of consumers, or participants, or users, or what we once called the audience.
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