Black Box Thinking: Why Some People Never Learn from Their Mistakes - But Some Do

by Matthew Syed

Scientists observe nature, create theories, and then seek to prove them by amassing as much supporting evidence as possible. But we can now see that this is only a part of the truth. Science is not just about confirmation, it is also about falsification. Knowledge does not progress merely by gathering confirmatory data, but by looking for contradictory data. Take the hypothesis that water boils at 100ºC. This seems true enough. But, as we now know, the hypothesis breaks down when water is boiled at altitude. By finding the places where a theory fails, we set the stage for the creation of a new, more powerful theory: a theory that explains both why water boils at 100ºC at ground level and at a different temperature at altitude. This is the stuff of scientific progress.