Black Box Thinking: Why Some People Never Learn from Their Mistakes - But Some Do

by Matthew Syed

In these circumstances we have two choices. The first is to accept that our original judgments may have been at fault. We question whether it was quite such a good idea to put our faith in a cult leader whose prophecies didn’t even materialize. We pause to reflect on whether the Iraq War was quite such a good idea given that Saddam didn’t pose the threat we imagined. The difficulty with this option is simple: it is threatening. It requires us to accept that we are not as smart as we like to think. It forces us to acknowledge that we can sometimes be wrong, even on issues on which we have staked a great deal. So, here’s the second option: denial. We reframe the evidence. We filter it, we spin it, or ignore it altogether. That way, we can carry on under the comforting assumption that we were right all along.