The Technological Singularity

by Murray Shanahan

Perhaps the most potent factor in the likely development of superintelligence, whether we’re talking about brain-based AI or AI engineered from scratch, is the prospect of recursive self-improvement. The idea is straightforward. A human-level AI is, by definition, capable of matching humans in almost every sphere of intellectual activity. One such sphere of intellectual activity is the construction of artificial intelligence. A first generation human-level artificial intelligence would be in much the same position as the human engineers that created it. Both species of engineer, biological and artificial, might call upon techniques like those just discussed to boost intelligence. However, the next generation of AIs, those whose intelligence is slightly above human level, will be better at engineering AI than any human. A sufficiently brilliant human neuroscientist could open up whole new vistas of theory, unearthing principles we can hardly imagine today, with far-reaching implications for neural engineering and brain-based artificial intelligence. A team of brilliant artificially intelligent neuroscientists working at superhuman speeds, or otherwise exploiting the possibilities afforded by liberation from biology, would be even more effective. They would be in a position to produce the next generation of brain-based AIs more rapidly than the previous generation was produced by its human developers. Each successive generation would appear more quickly than the last, follow...