The Technological Singularity

by Murray Shanahan

There are two opposing mistakes that are commonly made in discussions of artificial intelligence by those who don’t work in the field, and especially by the media. The first mistake is to give the impression that artificial intelligence is already here, or is just around the corner. Little bits of specialized AI technology are increasingly finding their way into everyday applications. But today’s AI technology is a long way from human-level artificial general intelligence, from AI that possesses common sense and creativity. A chatbot that is programmed to crack a few jokes or a humanoid robot whose eyes can follow you around a room can easily give a contrary impression. But, as AI skeptics will quickly and rightly point out, this is just an illusion. Yet the same skeptics would be making a mistake of their own to suppose that human-level artificial general intelligence will never happen. Kurzweil’s timeline may be out (or it may not). But as the preceding chapters have argued, there are a number of plausible paths to human-level AI and beyond, and every step along each of those paths is technologically feasible. It doesn’t matter what the timetable is, unless you’re hoping for the singularity to occur just in time to catalyze medical research that will prolong your life. But more important than your life or mine is the world we bequeath to future generations, and this is likely to be profoundly reshaped by the advent of human-level AI. As Friedrich Nietzsche said, above th...