Philosophy and religion are old enemies of probability. Philosophers from the earliest times have wished to distinguish themselves from the spinners of mere rhetoric by offering certainty. Parmenides distinguished sharply between truth, associated with Being, and the opinion of men, called “likely” and associated with non-Being.1 Logical reasoning is intended, by Parmenides, Plato, Aristotle, and their followers, to establish the foundations of knowledge beyond all doubt, and correspondingly likelihoods are banished as other people’s business.
