The big bang theory of the universe is much more probable, on present evidence, than the steady-state theory. But it is a rare scientist who can be found to say exactly how much more probable—or even approximately how much. Physics and astronomy, both ancient and modern, have few explicit probability calculations. Nevertheless, probabilistic reasoning is essential to both sciences, and it is visible at both ends of the theoretical spectrum. At the most theoretical end are overarching theories intended to explain a large and disparate body of observational data. The more complicated the
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