Religion too is an old enemy of probability—and for much the same reason as philosophy. It has certainty to offer, and acceptance of that certainty is not only a privilege but a duty. A strong though not always dominant strand in religion has been the condemnation of half measures, epitomized in the Book of Revelation’s “you are neither hot nor cold. I wish you were one or the other, but since you are neither, but only lukewarm, I will spit you out of my mouth.”1 When St. Paul mentions the distinction between probable and necessary reasons, it is to claim that he has the latter: “My speech and
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