Steve Greenleaf

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Bartolome de Medina, another student of Vitoria, was celebrated as the author of probabilism, the doctrine that in moral matters one may follow an opinion that is probable, even if the opposite is more probable. This proposition appeared in his commentary on the Summa of Aquinas, published in Salamanca in 1577. It is worth quoting his views at some length, since they summarize everything that has gone before, and they are the classic statement of what probability normally meant in the century before Pascal.
The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal
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