THE LAW OF EVIDENCE is the central thread in the history of probability. The reason is that the law must decide disputes. To do so, it must often decide who or what to believe. What witnesses are credible? Which documents? What is to be done about conflicting testimony? Is evidence of what a witness heard another person say to be admitted? And on what basis should one make the final decision on whose evidence is to be believed? It is possible to leave all these questions to the discretion of the judge, but a developed system of law will tend to introduce rules of evidence, so that this part of
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