Navigating Chaos: How to Find Certainty in Uncertain Situations

by Jeff Boss

Hollywood likes to portray SEALs with a shoot ’em up, almost larger-than-life persona that capitalizes on brawn and bravado, and unfortunately, that’s the only image of us that much of the public will ever know. What is not shown, however, are the mental capacities and emotional tolerances that we strive to enhance on a daily basis through an organizational model of continuous improvement, shared understanding, humility, and leadership.

It has been an internal struggle to write. The catch-22 of breaking the unspoken rule of not writing is to either do something that’s enjoyable and fulfilling, or to remain forever in the shadows and forget the experiences that have made me who I am today; lessons that can be shared with others so they may improve. If the intent behind writing this book were to be another

Teamwork, superior performance, and the ability to overcome complex situations with limited resources can only be learned under the most austere conditions, such as those to which SEALs are exposed continually throughout our training and professional careers. These experiences shape our character, competence, life passion, family values, and humility in a way that nothing else ever could.

To share knowledge is to serve others; to withhold it—despite any unwritten rule—is to serve oneself.

Results come from trust, attitude, and a shared purpose.

This is exactly why navigating uncertainty requires balance, because the more intangibles at your disposal, the wider your knowledge base to create certainty—or something that creates value for you.

It’s no secret that to wield optimal performance from an employee, he or she needs a balance of formal education and practical job-related experience, but also personal fulfillment, meaningful relationships, and opportunities to contribute and grow.

Discoveries in human performance were made that suggested the opposite: too much focus on one particular “silo” of training led to faster athlete burnout and actually inhibited performance.

What really happens in these situations, however, is the proliferation of chaos. In response to the uncertainty “out there,” the busy worker bees inside the organization work more frantically, thus increasing the chaos “in there.” Then, as a means of reducing the amount of uncertainty, people dig deeper into the weeds, analyzing more and scrutinizing everything in hopes of making the “best” decision. What results is analysis paralysis: seemingly endless meetings that adjourn with no one left in any better a position than the one they were in when they started.

The secret is to keep the performance capacities (physical, mental, emotional, spiritual) fulfilled, as doing so sustains energy levels to perform, to adapt, and to lead. By meeting the threshold of uncertainty posed by Murphy (of Murphy’s Law) with the four pillars of performance, we can chip away at the daily challenges that arise and slap them in the face—hard.

In other words, she fails because her focus up to this point has been myopic under one silo. Of course, not everybody

Of course, there was also the bureaucratic BS that pervades every organization. Different leaders reacted differently to stress. Some comported themselves well and put the mission first while others allowed stress to impact their decision-making. I use the word “allowed” because that’s just what it is: a choice to open oneself to external influences because the core self lacks the self-awareness to slap adversity in the face and say, “Get outta here. I got this.” Most of our actions at the operator level relied upon the decisions made by senior leaders, and if the decision-making process stalemated for any reason, then momentum lagged across the whole organization—as did results. When this happened—when there was an impetus for action but a lack of contextual awareness—there was only one thing us operators could do: we needed to adapt. We needed to make use of the minimal guidance we had because the problem set (i.e. the threat or crisis) wasn’t going to go away, and the only way to solve it was to fill the gap.

What you relied upon to get “here” no longer works, and so you must find a new way to get “there.” But, the trouble is, “there” is uncertain because it’s new, so getting to a new destination requires not only the skill and will to adapt to change, but also the awareness of the need to do so.

To remedy chaotic situations requires a chaotic approach, one that is nonlinear, constantly morphing, and continually sharpening its competitive edge with recurring feedback loops that build upon past experiences and lessons learned. Improvement cannot be sustained without reflection. Chaos arises from myriad sources that stem from two origins: internal chaos rising within you, and external chaos being imposed upon you by the environment. The result of this push/pull effect is the disequilibrium that you feel in your heart, mind, body, and soul, and which manifests itself as confusion, anxiety, lack of fulfillment, or despair.

Types of Unknowns

The Fudge Factor refers to known unknowns, or things that you know exist but can’t quite quantify. For example, you may leave work Monday between 5:00 and 5:30 p.m. because you know the longer you wait, the more traffic will build up. You know traffic exists but you’re not sure how much, so you build in a Fudge Factor of time that’s high enough to compensate for what you believe will be a worthy delay.

The Oh, Shit! Factor is just the opposite: unknown unknowns that arise out of nowhere (i.e. the external environment) that always seem to bite you in the ass at the most inopportune time, and these are the little “pleasantries” that Murphy (of Murphy’s Law infamy) likes to throw at us. Planning on going to work early but your car doesn’t start? Oh, shit! Bought a ridiculously overpriced house because of a promised year-end bonus that never materialized? Oh, shit! In a firefight and your weapon jams? Oh, shit! You get the idea.

During my tenure on the SEAL Teams, every enemy situation we encountered necessitated a slightly different approach, a tweak here and a new technique there. No two targets were ever the same, and each one had its own personality, its own outcome, and its own plan for how we attacked and ultimately executed it. We could never ascertain with 100 percent certainty what the enemy’s intentions were or how they would respond, simply because there were just too many variables to consider.

Uncertainty may appear boundless—limitless—but the very absence of certainty affords an equal opportunity to create it. Random life tests like to spring up out of nowhere at the most inopportune times—led by that guy Murphy and his damn law—as a means to test us and challenge our physical, mental, emotional, and spiritual fitness as we attempt to confront these challenges head on. Possessing a balance of physical, mental, emotional, and spiritual fortitude is what allows us to endure amidst ambiguity, tackle any challenge, and say, “I got this.” The challenge, of course, is that not everybody knows how to maximize his or her potential.

If you consider the phenomena of certainty and uncertainty you can see an inextricably linked marvel: the fact that one cannot exist without the other. In other words, the very lack of certainty yields a one-way path toward certainty for the simple fact that nothing can be more uncertain than it already is. I know, this is deep, but hear me out.

From uncertainty one doesn’t become any more uncertain. It’s like hitting rock bottom—and from rock bottom, the only place left to go is up. So, what exists with both certainty and uncertainty is an interdependent system; a world, situation, or whatever you want to call it that only occurs based on the evolution and existence of the other. No matter what system you employ to defeat the other, there are certain principles that govern certitude in human nature. For instance, you can’t have trust without honesty. Likewise, there can be no learning without humility, no selflessness without service, no innovation without disruption, no leadership without followership, and no fitness without “fatness” (kidding, but you get my point). What I’m trying to say is that each element depends on its reciprocal for two things: Its existence Its solution

The dichotomy that uncertainty presents, then, is both a serendipitous and deliberate opportunity to create something from nothing, to find opportunity where others see conclusion. After all, only from chaos can calmness emerge. There is chaos we deal with as individuals, teams, and organizations; chaos that presents itself at the most inopportune times, and requires you to zig when you’d rather zag. No matter where you are, chaos finds you, and if you don’t know how to deal with change as an individual or as an organization, then you get eaten, swallowed whole, and left for dead.

Anybody can perform a task that he or she already knows and understands. It’s when obscurity, doubt, and stress are interjected into the equation against the backdrop of survival that the creature of the unknown exposes us for who we are, not just what we know how to do.

The bottom line is, if you have to move in a firefight, the marketplace, or a job role, you do so for one main reason: to strategically improve the position of your team or organization. Any discomfort, whether it be physical, mental, emotional, or spiritual, is secondary. If you aren’t experiencing discomfort, trepidation, or failure, then you’re doing something that will bring about far graver consequences: you’re trying to avoid it altogether. In the hypothetical gunfight scenario, change only occurs when its significance has garnered the shared attention of everyone involved. You don’t just move because the leader told you to. You change position because there is meaning and purpose associated with the behavior to move.

The purpose of moving is to gain the high ground; to adapt amidst a changing threat toward a new situation based upon a new stimulus and thus create new meaning. However, your ability to move—to create value—depends on the people with whom you work, their individual and team-based competencies, their internal drivers for excellence, and their support network. This is where performance and leadership come into play.

When people, teams, or companies share the same purpose it is presumed that: Communication is clear. There is no ambiguity as to whom the enemy or competitor is, their position, and what resources they are employing against you. Every employee must be able to identify the battle because if you know your enemy, then you know how to defeat him. It’s when you don’t necessarily know your enemy intimately enough that the unforeseen arises and takes a bite out of your ass. The team is working in alignment. The muzzle of each team member’s rifle must be pointed in the same direction to maximize potential, reduce wasted efforts, and share the same purpose. Whether you are in a gunfight, a pricing war, or a product battle, every second you lose is three more seconds you now need to advance—one second to collect yourself, one second to catch up, and another to get ahead. “Winning” has been defined. There is no confusion about what success looks like, and everybody is on the same page to get there. Operating environment is understood before moving. At some point, one side will have to turn the page and gain higher ground, conduct a flanking maneuver, or create some sort of change in an effort to tip the scale in their favor. A systemic understanding of the competitive landscape allows you to beat the enemy to the metaphorical high ground. Skill and performance standards exist. Of course, if you want your top sniper to take the shot or your number one negotiator to land your next deal...

This also entails removing the wrong people (although not in the middle of a firefight), which only comes after you identify the performance-based skills (i.e. behaviors) that each member brings to the table and how they help or hinder your team’s objectives.

We have a saying on the Teams: “Shoot, move, communicate.” It’s the essence of how we function together, and the lessons of “shoot, move, communicate” carry over to the business world. Shooting is a very technical skill that requires a complete understanding of the fundamentals (body positioning, breathing, trigger squeeze, and follow-through), and environmental factors (wind direction and sun position).

To shoot is to make a decision based on a confluence of information. To actually pull the trigger is to take action, to lead, and to create value for others that inspires behavior. Now, the only way to advance your performance from beginner to intermediate to advanced (to badass) is to not only grasp the fundamentals, but to apply them. Every. Single. Day. This requires not only incredible amounts of discipline, focus, self-awareness, and social awareness, but also the ability to harness and collectively apply them through one’s physical, mental, emotional, and spiritual capacities. All of these things together determine performance

While shooting is performance-based criteria that defines a SEAL’s action, moving is our adaptation—our ability to change based on a need. This could take the form of physical adaptation (changing locations in a firefight, for example), personal adaptation (changing opinions or behaviors), or organizational restructuring (changing organizational culture or strategy). Whatever the impetus or the type of movement, the one constant is that to move is to learn, as you shift from what you once knew to be right into the unchartered territory that you now believe to be the new right. Humility is fundamental here, too, as it’s what enables you to release your previously held mental models and move forward.

The paradox seems to be, as Socrates demonstrated long ago, that the truly free individual is free only to the extent of his own self-mastery [w]hile those who will not govern themselves are condemned to find masters to govern over them. —Steven Pressfield, The War of Art

Does each and every member of your team have the skillset in place that is needed to advance the team’s collective cause? That’s the performance piece.

Adaptability is what enables any team to tackle the unknown and strategically improve their position at a moment’s notice.

Without effective leadership in any situation, communication breaks down and things rapidly spin out of control.

While the term definitely connotes performance of the physical sort, it is critical not to overlook the mental, emotional, and spiritual pieces, which comprise the larger puzzle of performance.

All four elements—physical, mental, emotional, spiritual—contribute to one’s daily living, how he or she feels, and, ultimately, how he or she performs. Varying levels of each are called upon based on the task at hand, but the capacity of each still exists. No matter your objectives, goals, or pursuits, the mental piece is what sets the wheels in motion to execute or to pursue said goals; it is what encapsulates intent, which is the essential building block to thought, emotion, and behavior.

Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, in his bestselling book Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Performance, says that to achieve optimal performance, one must merge behavior with intent. Doing so undoubtedly requires a laser-like focus that not many people choose or know how to employ. Common office distractions such as calendar reminders, cell phones,

Before sport science became a widely known field of study, athletes and coaches trained in a linear fashion. In the old way of thinking, the belief was that, in order to become better, an athlete just needed to improve his or her physical capacity by working harder, putting in longer hours, honing their technique, and competing more often.

What sport science discovered was this: for an athlete to perform optimally, he or she requires a multidimensional training regimen. That is, the physical performance associated with top-tier athletes entails not just role-specific training (i.e. sprinters sprinting, weight lifters lifting) but also nutrition, mental fortitude, sport psychology, biomechanics, economy of motion, and rest and recovery. If an athlete only has one piece of this so-called “performance puzzle,” then his or her overall performance will never reach an optimal state. To perform optimally physically, one must also possess the proper faculties to face hardship, endure difficulty, become motivated, and ceaselessly pursue a higher purpose that drives him or her to continually improve.

In the PAL Model©, performance corresponds to the shoot component of shoot, move, communicate. The physical, mental, emotional, and spiritual aspects that go into squeezing that trigger and ensuring that the bullet finds its intended target are critical, but so are the internal and external awareness that the shooter must have to ensure his bullet finds the right home. Believe it or not, sending a one-inch projectile across three hundred yards is no easy feat, let alone eight hundred yards or one thousand. There are significant steps one must take to get and stay “in the zone,” and that’s what the performance section will cover.

There are many points of performance when it comes to shooting, which is why performance is the foundation upon which PAL© is built. The physical positioning of the shooter is key as his (or her) body is the foundation that affords the greater certainty that serves as the foundation of a solid shot. The mental aspect of focus and concentration supersedes all else because without mental focus all else—the discomforts of life—pour into the mind and overwhelm it.

Next is the emotional piece, which is the feeling of comfort, control and acceptance that one must have before and after taking the shot. There can be no second-guessing, no hesitancy, only the willingness to look (and move) forward to the next objective.

Finally, the spiritual piece is where purpose and passion play in, as they are what provide fulfillment and meaning to your actions. Being spiritually content enables you to continue taking more shots and never doubt or second-guess yourself. The convergence of these four elements is where certainty lies. The key, obviously, is learning how to balance the four amongst a world of constant change and disruption.

The need to adapt comes from the uncertainty of a situation that is both a challenge and an opportunity. The uncertainty that springs up out of nowhere acts as a defining moment to test your skill and will, your spirit and motivation. What separates those who stay relevant from those who don’t is their willingness to adapt.

Adaptability allows you to respond immediately and intelligently to constant change so as to seize opportunity where others might see obstruction. Adaptive capacity also facilitates forward momentum because it lessens the need to have to stop what you’re doing to review what happened. Instead, you’re in a fluid, dynamic state that continually “reads and reacts” to problems as they arise.

The late Warren Bennis, widely considered a pioneer of the study of leadership, once described people with adaptive capacity as individuals who: …may struggle in the crucibles they encounter, but they don’t become stuck in or defined by them. They learn important lessons, including new skills that allow them to move on to new levels of achievement and new levels of learning. This ongoing process of challenge, adaptation, and learning prepares the individual for the next crucible, where the process is repeated. Whenever significant new probl...

Adaptability refers to an organism’s ability to stay relevant amidst change; to adjust to new conditions based on a compelling impetus to do so. To stay current—to do away with the old and adapt to the new—requires the skill and will to do so, and ...

In the scientific world, adaptability depends on two things: self-renewal...

Self-renewal refers to your skill and will to reexamine and ultimately reset any emotional “hiccups” that may have caused your values and subsequent behavior to derail....

Self-organization refers to individual and/or group behavior without direction from external authorities. For instance, when an eighth grade teacher leaves her classroom, the students have two choices: they can incite chaos and behave poorly, or they can maintain their composure and align their behavior to the teacher’s objectives. In either instance, the students guide their behavior based on the understanding and mutual agreement they all...