John Maynard Keynes defined speculation as “the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market.”5 Keynes went on to say that the speculator must think about what others are thinking about, what others are thinking about the market (and repeat). In what is now called a “Keynesian beauty contest,” judges are told not to pick the most beautiful woman but instead to pick the contestant they think the other judges will choose as the most beautiful. The winner of such a contest may be very different than the winner of a traditional beauty contest. Keynes said this about such a contest: It’s
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