Marching Orders: The Untold Story of How the American Breaking of the Japanese Secret Codes Led to the Defeat of Nazi Germany and Japan

by Bruce Lee

The earlier Japanese messages claim that Molotov told Eden that Russia would hold on to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and major parts of Poland after the war, which turns out to be true. “At the time,” Oshima tells Tokyo, “Britain agreed to the program but the U.S. refused. It is not known whether Molotov was successful in getting the U.S. to alter its attitude [on this trip].”

He replies that the American route to defeat Japan must be “via the Aleutians or the southern route via the Philippines. Because of Japanese military operations the southern and central route must be practically ruled out.… Any attempt by America to attack Japan must be by the northern route.”10 There is a reason to include this seemingly innocuous message to Tokyo in the narrative at this time. In this case it is a question of finding out what the Japanese believe the American strategy will be in the Pacific. The planners in Washington are seeking this type of information so they can draw up strategy for future operations. One of the most difficult things for

McCormack to achieve is to get the planners to coordinate their thinking with his staff so that the intelligence analysts are alert about what to look for. In this instance, for example, the Japanese message is music to the ears of American naval strategists. They are preparing to do exactly what Kitazawa says they cannot do. Thus this “innocuous” decrypt is a major indication that the Japanese are misreading American strategy in the Pacific.

To explain: After the victory at Midway, American strategists have to revise their planning with breathtaking speed. An order to seize the Solomon Islands is issued on July 2 by the U.S. Chiefs of Staff. On July 5, the Japanese are discovered to be building an airfield on Guadalcanal. Almost overnight the island becomes the primary target of the First Marine Division, which lands on August 7. (Another regiment of the First Marines seizes the three small islands of Tulagi, Gavutu and Tanambogo.) Once again, it is a matter of a small American force being committed without sufficient supplies and support (in this case the American Navy was soundly trounced by the Japanese in the battle of Savo Island, and the Navy, fearful for its carriers, “bugged out,” withdrawing the ships carrying the Marines’ ...

courage do the Marines hold out. After brutal fighting, Guadalcanal falls to the Americans, despite the fact that Imperial Japanese Headquarters had decreed that the recapture of the island was top priority. Washington now knows that it can dictate the pace of combat and how the war will be fought. It also u...

Another reason why the messages from Moscow are so important to Washington is that they prove, early on in the war, that our ally, Stalin, never, ever intends to allow American planes to “shuttle-bomb” Japan, i.e., allow them to depart from Alaskan soil to land on airfields in Siberia. Just as the Japanese were afraid to attack Russia, the Russians are afraid to do anything that might upset their nonaggression agreement with Tokyo. Later on, the question of shuttle bombing will become a major irritant in Soviet-American relations. Be that as it may, Roosevelt and Marshall know by reading the Magic Summaries that, from the beginning, ...

The first question Sato asks is the same as the one he asked earlier in April: Is Russia going to “transfer, sell, lease or lend any of its territory to the U.S. for military bases to attack Japan?” Molotov replies, “Why, we never even discussed anything like that [with the Americans].… I am telling the truth when I say we never discussed the subject.”

Sato concludes the meeting by saying that he hopes that “the Soviet will steadfastly maintain her present stand” of neutrality with Japan. Molotov counters, saying, “I hope that Japan, too, will maintain her present relations with us because you know it works both ways.”

One cannot find in the Magic Summaries any indication that the Japanese passed on to their German allies the information that the Russians were pulling their troops out of Siberia and not replacing them.

The month of August 1942 is pivotal in the history of World War II. During the early days, Field Marshal Rommel pounds away at the British in North Africa with great success. In Russia, the German drive toward Stalingrad and the Caucasus rolls along, seemingly unstoppable.

Germany, Italy and Japan become wary of each other. The war is changing in favor of the Allies, but only a few people see it happening.

The message to Tokyo is unequivocal about this, saying the “Germans are desperately doing all they can to [to get us to attack Siberia and] drag Japan into the German-Soviet war.” Meanwhile, Oshima’s office in Berlin tells Tokyo that a German circular communiqué sent to all embassies and consulates, the transmission of which to Shanghai was intercepted by the Japanese, instructs the German diplomatic community around the world to “make [the] greatest possible propaganda use” of the alleged “free hand in Europe that the Anglo-Saxons have granted the Soviets.”

On August 4, the critical third part of a three-part message from Tokyo, which was sent on July 27 to Baron Oshima in Berlin, is decrypted in Washington. The message clearly states and explains the decision—made at the highest levels in Japan—not to invade Siberia. The

most important section says: “We believe, that ever since the beginning of the war, the policy which the Japanese government has taken has been the most favorable for completion of the Japanese-German-Italian united war, massing our reserve strength at the most strategic points. Under the present circumstances our policy is to preserve peace in the north and restrain Stalin’s political influence in the East while laboring to strengthen our campaign against America and England in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. “Therefore we hope that Germany also will fully appreciate the above is the most favorable course on the whole for the prosecution of the Japanese-German-Italian united war. “This telegram has been discussed and approved by the Government and Imperial Headquarters.”

Also on July 27, 1942, Premier Tojo makes a speech declaring that Japan will help India gain complete independence. “Japan cannot allow an Anglo-North American presence in India,”

says Tojo. He also calls for the Muhammadan countries in the Near East to take advantage of the “opportunity offered them to establish free countries.”

In his role as a faithful reporter of everything he sees and hears, Oshima is about to send off a series of reports that not only identify Stalingrad as the primary German attack, but also gives the Allies an invaluable report on the German order of battle for the coming fight, plus pointing out the weaknesses of the German forces as they advance, particularly on their flanks, which are protected by weak groupings of Italian, Hungarian and Austrian troops.

“For some time it has been rumored,” Oshima says, “that the main German drive would be directed toward the Caucasus.… The German Army has now proceeded far with its breakthrough from the Southern Ukraine front, but still the Soviet Army has not shifted any particularly noteworthy forces thither. This is probably due, first, to the fact that more than half of the fifty or sixty divisions of their strategic reserves were lost in the Kharkov offensive. Second, the Soviets probably fear that in view of the way Germany attacked last year she may soon make a drive against Moscow again.… If the German forces capture Stalingrad, they can completely divide the Red Army. To the capture of this city the German forces attach great importance. However, what will have the greatest effect upon this is the engagement of armored units in the Stalingrad front and on the west bank of the Don [River].… It is impossible to tell the strength of the Soviet forces in the Caucasus … it must be about forty divisions. If, on the Moscow front, the Soviet Army should discover the disposition of German forces and German plans, they might take the offensive there, but Germany is quite ready for this.”

From Vichy, France, the Japanese ambassador reports to Tokyo that he has met personally with Adm. Jean Darlan, who says the fleet will not be moved from Alexandria. If the fleet is attacked, Darlan said, it will probably have to be scuttled since the vessels are obsolete, undermanned and have been anchored so long that their speed has been seriously reduced. The Ambassador also quotes Darlan as saying that, prior to the fall of France, he had offered to send certain ships that were now at Alexandria to “protect” the British fleet in the eastern Mediterranean. Darlan “can never forgive the present treacherous actions and breach of faith on the part of the British.”

The Ambassador concluded by saying that he believes Darlan is “strongly anti-American as well as anti-British.”29 The Allies have their answer: the French fleet is not a viable fighting force; Darlan is not to be trusted.

Within twenty-four hours, from Italy, Ambassador Horikiri reports to Tokyo that the Germans in Rome are pushing the idea that Stalin, upset by the fact that the Allies have been unable to fulfill their promise of a second front in Europe, may seek peace with Berlin by the autumn. The source for the information is quoted as saying that Germany “will be ready to make peace on suitable terms. As for Italy, she believes this war in Russia should be finished up summarily and this reserve of Axis troops moved south and used to turn the tide in the Near East and Middle East and in North Africa, thus deciding the fate of the present war.”

The monumental news of the day, however, is the report by Baron Oshima to Tokyo about his recent trip to the Russian front. In making his estimate of “future war developments,” Oshima predicts that “the German Army now expects to crush the Soviet Army before winter.”

Oshima also predicts that the German campaign in the Caucasus will be slowed because the Germans will be attacking in mountainous country with the problems of an extended supply and communications line. But, he says, “it is estimated that the Caucasus will be occupied sometime next month at the latest.” No prediction can be made as to when Moscow will be attacked, says Oshima. But it appears that conditions will be suitable for a siege that coincides with the attack on Stalingrad. Moscow should fall before winter. “When the Caucasus and European Russia have been occupied,” claims Oshima, “a part of the German Army will be maintained there in winter quarters, facing the remnants of the Soviet Army. The main strength of the German Army will return home or be diverted to other fronts.… It also might be that the Soviet Army will … launch a surprise action against the German Army. However, judging from the weakness of the Soviet’s striking power, such a development is not anticipated.”

German forces in the north are to create a diversion in the whole Leningrad area.

In the center, German forces are positioned to check the movement of troops southward from Moscow. Meanwhile, they are prepared to advance on Moscow in “case of a Russian reversal in the south [Stalingrad] made it necessary [for Russian] troops to be drawn out of [Moscow].” In the south, the Sixth Army and the Fourth Armored Division were “assigned the responsibility for capturing Stalingrad.… The Hungarian forces … were to cover the left flanks of the forces attacking Stalingrad.… Confronting the Russian Army in the Sea of Azov area [i.e., the right flank of the German advance on Stalingrad] is the Third Rumanian Army (consisting of two Rumanian divisions and one division of German infantry).”

But what Oshima does not realize is that he has given Stalin the key to a successful counterattack. All the Russians have to do is confirm the location of the weak Hungarian and

Rumanian forces protecting the flanks of the German advance, drive through them, catch the Germans in a double envelopment and trap them inside Stalingrad. This is exactly what Stalin orders four weeks later.

Within the next few days, the judicious use of Ultra allows the British to sink four of the six freighters carrying vital supplies to Rommel, who launches his attack on the new, untried English commander hoping that he can refuel his panzers on captured British stocks, which is no way to go into battle. For two days Rommel tries to seize the Alam Halfa Ridge, only to suffer horrific losses inflicted by British antitank guns that are perfectly positioned thanks to Montgomery’s use of Ultra. Finally, on September 1, Rommel is forced to withdraw. The retreat signifies the end of Germany’s attempts to march on Egypt and the Suez Canal.

For the analysts in Washington, September will also bring solid proof that Japan and Germany are deliberately misleading each other. And by the end of the month, these deceptions will lead to the first indications of major disruptions in the economies and treasuries of the Axis nations.

What the Japanese have not told the Germans is that they knew that the troop trains going to Siberia were empty, although they were full on the return trip to European Russia.38 And Oshima has already reported to Tokyo that the Germans have defeated the first Siberian troops they encountered in the Stalingrad region. Meanwhile, the German minister talking with the Japanese ambassador in Hsinking says that since “Stalin is an intelligent person there is a possibility of overtures from Russia for an independent peace.” The Japanese reply is withering: Yes, Russia might seek peace “if Germany bore down strongly enough.”39 And from Paris, the Japanese report that a diplomat named Achenbach, who is attached to the German embassy, has told the Japanese ambassador that “Laval’s way of acting is most loyal to us Germans and it is our policy to support him as fully as possible.… Now Laval has informed us Germans that he wishes to cooperate with Japan, too, and we intend to make

France a full-fledged member of the new European circle through [Laval].… For the good of all we [Germans] would like to see Tokyo and Vichy draw closer.”

It is at this point that the Germans begin to dissemble to the Japanese about Stalingrad and North Africa.

According to the summary, the militaristic Japanese cabinet has created a new department—The Greater East Asia Ministry—at the expense of the Foreign Office. The cabinet is repudiating current diplomatic procedures in the occupied countries of East Asia “in favor of stronger methods.” The Japanese Army and Navy are taking over running the Philippines, the East Indies and “the southern conquered territories in general.” This is also true in China. Liaison with Germany about India will now be handled via the military attachés in Rome and Berlin.

In Chile, meanwhile, Italy and Japan are engaged in a major campaign of political bribery. One million pesos has been deposited with the Chairman of the Upper House, identified by name as Doran. According to the Japanese, the Italians used their own funds at first, but now the Japanese are furnishing the pesos and the Italians are making the deposits. The Italians are also approaching two members of the Chilean radical party.44 And in Spain, Foreign Minister Serrano Suner has resigned. But this does not block Japanese minister Suma from his intelligence gathering. For example, Suma obtains from the head of the Spanish Communications Office a recently submitted report by Ambassador Cardenas in

Washington made at the request of the new Spanish foreign minister, Jordana. The latter had asked his Washington staff to comment on “the feelings of the U.S. Government and people on the current situation.”

The Magic Summary of September 26 has Oshima first analyzing for Tojo that the way the war is now going, it seems unlikely that a decisive strike can be made soon.

The defeat of Russia is essential to the establishment of the coprosperity sphere in Greater East Asia. Also, from the point of view of striking at the Anglo-Saxons, it is urgent that Russia be dealt with without too much delay. I suppose it is our first policy to maintain neutrality with Russia, but that cannot last. Let us maintain this neutrality for a while, settle affairs in the South Seas, all the while making ready to hit the Soviet, and when next summer comes, let us join forces with the Germans and be in on the kill.”

Allied military planners can now appreciate the way Japanese foreign policy appears to be turning vis-à-vis Stalingrad and North Africa. If the Germans are successful at Stalingrad and in the Caucasus, it is apparent that the Japanese will consider breaking their neutrality pact with Russia, attack eastward through Siberia, and join Germany in carving up the USSR.

“As the first step, Japan, as I said, is determined to stabilize the South Seas area and, at the same time, invade the Indian Ocean. While we are doing that, you Germans, just as soon as you have mopped up the Caucasus, should send forces to Iran and Iraq and join hands with

us Japanese across the Persian Gulf. I cannot overstress the importance of achieving this feat; and another thing, we Japanese and Germans must break down all financial barriers and open the gates to complete economic collaboration. In this way, we can establish a trend in which we will be absolutely invincible.”

After their completion, Germany should make absolutely failure-proof preparations for an invasion of England by the summer of 1944. Judging from actual results, it will probably be difficult to force England to surrender by 1944

through the use of submarines and air raids alone, so that invasion is the only way open to you. Besides, this is of vital importance to us if we are going to make them accept our terms at the time of the peace conference. If Germany, from now on, prepares complete equipment for invasion, trains faithfully and with the proper mental attitude, and uses poison gas, I think the result will be certain. [Emphasis added.]

“Ribbentrop said: ‘Although the Fuehrer also is considering various ways of bringing the war to favorable conclusion, he is putting special emphasis on a German-Japanese junction across the Indian Ocean. It is decided that, after occupying the Caucasus, there will certainly be an advance on the Middle East; however, the time and manner of the attack cannot yet be determined.’

Suddenly the upcoming battle of Stalingrad and the invasion of the Caucasus is assuming incredible proportions for the Allies. Stalingrad must not be lost. The Germans must not be allowed to drive through the Caucasus. The cost in lives and material be damned.

Whether or not the Japanese comprehended the defeat Rommel has suffered in North Africa, or the danger of the German undertaking at Stalingrad, is unclear from reading the Magic Summaries.

Oshima is now telling Tokyo that there is even more to his conversation with Ribbentrop of September 17, and it’s about Japan’s breaking the promise she made in July to supply Germany with 164,000 kilo tons of edible fats. Germany

is so desperate for this material she is ready to send ten tankers to the Far East to pick up the products. Oshima reports that Ribbentrop told him: “We Germans must have just as much cocoa oil and palm oil as you can let us have. I know that you Japanese may suffer some in the process, but at all odds we must have what we have already agreed on.”52 Apparently the same point has also been made by German vice-minister Wiehl of Foreign Affairs, who is quoted as telling Oshima’s staff: “We must have edible fats for this winter and if you Japanese don’t let us have them, I do not see what we will do.… Our people will just have to go without. They will suffer in body and soul as a result. The bad effect will be extreme.… You promised us 164,000 tons some time ago … and judging from the fact that you Japanese exported a total of about 100,000 tons of coconut oil and palm oil from your occupied countries in 1937–1938, we feel justified in believing that you can accommodate us.”53 The new Japanese Foreign Minister, Tani, replies to Oshima that, yes, there have been some supply problems, but 12,000 kilo tons of palm oil will be shipped at the end of October “as stipulated.”

This Magic Summary has a special intelligence note added to it, saying: “Germany has for some time looked to Japan to supply some of her edible fats. Earlier messages show that in June, 1941, Japan was purchasing such commodities on behalf of the Germans and shipping them to Germany via the Trans-Siberian Railway.… The statements by von Ribbentrop and Wiehl … are by far the most urgent pleas for these items that Germany has yet made, so far as our material discloses. They may … indicate some change in the situation since last April. At that time an O.S.S. survey stated that the edible fats situation was ‘particularly tight,’ but that Germany was thought to have a sufficient supply to fill the ration requirements from the crop year 1942–3.”

The next day’s Magic Summary shows that Japan’s own economy is also feeling the pinch. The German ambassador to Tokyo, Ott, reports that while the problems of edible fats appears to have been resolved for the moment, the Japanese ministries of the Interior and Finance have announced drastic changes of policy for the local prefecture budgets for the coming year. For example, the increasing lack of capital, material and labor is to be considered before

every new outlay; current expenditures are to be examined to see if they can be canceled or postponed. As for new outlays, they will only be authorized if they prove necessary for air protection and other defense measures, the increase of production or “the nourishment and health of the Axis peoples.” Meanwhile, local taxes will not be increased because of the increased tax demands of the central government.